We noted several weeks ago the Canadian Dollar would become more linked to the price of oil when Oil drops below $95 per barrel. This means the USDCAD could easily fall in price even more as oil falls further. Oil is now trading a remarkable $85 per barrel, and the Canadian Dollar has dropped significantly over the [...]
Oil and the Canadian Dollar, Together Again
May 10, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Oil and the Canadian Dollar have a well known relationship. When Oil goes up, so does the Canadian Dollar. This correlation has been estimated to be extremely high during some time periods. The FXC shows this relationship very well, as does the USDCAD. Still, this correlation can change in strength - sometimes the Canadian Dollar does not respond as [...]
Business Insider Likes My Analysis: TF 101 Signals 3-16-2012
March 15, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Good news today – some of my market analysis was picked up by a major website! I mentioned President Obama could use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to lower the price of oil. But really – he didn’t even need to do that much. He could just leak the government was thinking about using the [...]
Did a Commodity Crash Start today? TF101 Signals 3-6-2012
March 6, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
I’ve warned a few times about the potential for massive sell off in commodities – and there is a chance this huge sell off started today. When I look at the supply and demand fundamentals facing individual commodities, I see very bearish signs in nearly every commodity. I can’t tell if this potential crash is [...]
Gold on a Roll
February 8, 2012 by · 1 Comment
**New Trade Alert- Oil** We got long oil today. Oil retraced a bit once we got in the market. This market is giving mixed signals right now, and has been moving back and forth in a range for months now. Choppy markets mean tough times as a trend trader. There seems to be a battle [...]
Oil pushed up by Commodity Funds
January 10, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Crude oil is surprisingly strong. But Why? Crude Oil is one of the major components of commodity indexes. This matters because commodity indexes are one of the major sources of speculation in the commodity markets. This is the reason I believe we’re going to see a golden age of trend following over the next decade. [...]
Speculative Bid in Oil and Gasoline Gets Crushed, Again
September 2, 2011 by · Leave a Comment
Even the most basic look at the oil and gasoline markets will uncover that most of the price increases in oil and gasoline have been due to speculation, not true underlying demand. Oil supplies are down a bit, but still near 5 year highs in the United States. Saudi Arabia is pumping more oil than [...]
Why trend trading exits can be hard: Crude Oil case study
August 12, 2011 by · Leave a Comment
Oil! Crude oil moved hundreds of points in the last week. Since the system was short, this downward move plowed tons of money into the account. But the system has not moved the stops yet, despite the huge move. You can see here just what happened in crude oil. The huge move happened in just [...]
